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            Abstract The majority of low-mass ( ) galaxies at high redshift (z > 1) appear elongated in projection. We use JWST-CEERS observations to explore the role of gravitational lensing in this puzzle. The typical galaxy–galaxy lensing shearγ ∼ 1% is too low to explain the predominance of elongated early galaxies with an ellipticitye ≈ 0.6. However, nonparametric quantile regression with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (or BART) reveals hints of an excess of tangentially aligned source–lens pairs withγ > 10%. On larger scales, we also find evidence for weak-lensing shear. We rule out the null hypothesis of randomly oriented galaxies at ≳99% significance in multiple NIRCam chips, modules, and pointings. The number of such regions is small and attributable to chance, but coherent alignment patterns suggest otherwise. On the chip scale, the average complex ellipticity 〈e〉 ∼ 10% is nonnegligible and beyond the level of our point-spread function (PSF) uncertainties. The shear variance is an order of magnitude above the conventional weak-lensing regime but is more sensitive to PSF systematics, intrinsic alignments, cosmic variance, and other biases. Taking it as an upper limit, the maximum implied “cosmic shear” is only a few percent and cannot explain the elongated shapes of early galaxies. The alignments themselves may arise from lensing by a protocluster or filament atz ∼ 0.75 where we find an overabundance of massive lens galaxies. We recommend a weak-lensing search for overdensities in “blank” deep fields with the James Webb Space Telescope and the Roman Space Telescope.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available June 6, 2026
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            Abstract The scaling of galaxy properties with halo mass suggests that feedback loops regulate star formation, but there is no consensus yet about how those feedback loops work. To help clarify discussions of galaxy-scale feedback, Paper I presented a very simple model for supernova feedback that it called the minimalist regulator model. This follow-up paper interprets that model and discusses its implications. The model itself is an accounting system that tracks all of the mass and energy associated with a halo’s circumgalactic baryons—the central galaxy’s atmosphere. Algebraic solutions for the equilibrium states of that model reveal that star formation in low-mass halos self-regulates primarily by expanding the atmospheres of those halos, ultimately resulting in stellar masses that are insensitive to the mass-loading properties of galactic winds. What matters most is the proportion of supernova energy that couples with circumgalactic gas. However, supernova feedback alone fails to expand galactic atmospheres in higher-mass halos. According to the minimalist regulator model, an atmospheric contraction crisis ensues, which may be what triggers strong black hole feedback. The model also predicts that circumgalactic medium properties emerging from cosmological simulations should depend largely on the specific energy of the outflows they produce, and we interpret the qualitative properties of several numerical simulations in light of that prediction.more » « less
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            Abstract This paper presents a new framework for understanding the relationship between a galaxy and its circumgalactic medium (CGM). It focuses on howimbalancesbetween heating and cooling cause either expansion or contraction of the CGM. It does this by trackingallof the mass and energy associated with a halo’s baryons, including their gravitational potential energy, even if feedback has pushed some of those baryons beyond the halo’s virial radius. We show how a star-forming galaxy’s equilibrium state can be algebraically derived within the context of this framework, and we analyze how the equilibrium star formation rate depends on supernova feedback. We consider the consequences of varying the mass loading parameter relating a galaxy’s gas mass outflow rate ( ) to its star formation rate ( ) and obtain results that challenge common assumptions. In particular, we find that equilibrium star formation rates in low-mass galaxies are generally insensitive to mass loading, and when mass loading does matter, increasing it actually results inmorestar formation because more supernova energy is needed to resist atmospheric contraction.more » « less
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            This paper presents the Learning the Universe Implicit Likelihood Inference (LtU-ILI) pipeline, a codebase for rapid, user-friendly, and cutting-edge machine learning (ML) inference in astrophysics and cosmology. The pipeline includes software for implementing various neural architectures, training schema, priors, and density estimators in a manner easily adaptable to any research workflow. It includes comprehensive validation metrics to assess posterior estimate coverage, enhancing the reliability of inferred results. Additionally, the pipeline is easily parallelizable, designed for efficient exploration of modeling hyperparameters. To demonstrate its capabilities, we present real applications across a range of astrophysics and cosmology problems, such as: estimating galaxy cluster masses from X-ray photometry; inferring cosmology from matter power spectra and halo point clouds; characterising progenitors in gravitational wave signals; capturing physical dust parameters from galaxy colors and luminosities; and establishing properties of semi-analytic models of galaxy formation. We also include exhaustive benchmarking and comparisons of all implemented methods as well as discussions about the challenges and pitfalls of ML inference in astronomical sciences. All code and examples are made publicly available at https://github.com/maho3/ltu-ili.more » « less
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            Abstract The circumgalactic medium (CGM) plays a pivotal role in regulating gas flows around galaxies and thus shapes their evolution. However, the details of how galaxies and their CGM coevolve remain poorly understood. We present a new time-dependent two-zone model that self-consistently tracks not just mass and metal flows between galaxies and their CGM but also the evolution of the global thermal and turbulent kinetic energy of the CGM. Our model accounts for heating and turbulence driven by both supernova winds and cosmic accretion as well as radiative cooling, turbulence dissipation, and halo outflows due to CGM overpressurization. We demonstrate that, depending on parameters, the CGM can undergo a phase transition (“thermalization”) from a cool, turbulence-supported phase to a virial-temperature, thermally supported phase. This CGM phase transition is largely determined by the ability of radiative cooling to balance heating from supernova winds and turbulence dissipation. We perform an initial calibration of our model to the FIRE-2 cosmological hydrodynamical simulations and show that it can approximately reproduce the baryon cycles of the simulated halos. In particular, we find that, for these parameters, the phase transition occurs at high redshift in ultrafaint progenitors and at low redshift in classicalMvir∼ 1011M⊙dwarfs, while Milky Way–mass halos undergo the transition atz≈ 0.5. We see a similar transition in the simulations though it is more gradual, likely reflecting radial dependence and multiphase gas not captured by our model. We discuss these and other limitations of the model and possible future extensions.more » « less
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            Abstract Galactic outflows driven by supernovae (SNe) are thought to be a powerful regulator of a galaxy’s star-forming efficiency. Mass, energy, and metal outflows (ηM,ηE, andηZ, here normalized by the star formation rate, the SNe energy, and metal production rates, respectively) shape galaxy properties by both ejecting gas and metals out of the galaxy and by heating the circumgalactic medium (CGM), preventing future accretion. Traditionally, models have assumed that galaxies self-regulate by ejecting a large fraction of the gas, which enters the interstellar medium (ISM), although whether such high mass loadings agree with observations is still unclear. To better understand how the relative importance of ejective (i.e., high mass loading) versus preventative (i.e., high energy loading) feedback affects the present-day properties of galaxies, we develop a simple gas-regulator model of galaxy evolution, where the stellar mass, ISM, and CGM are modeled as distinct reservoirs which exchange mass, metals, and energy at different rates within a growing halo. Focusing on the halo mass range from 1010to 1012M⊙, we demonstrate that, with reasonable parameter choices, we can reproduce the stellar-to-halo mass relation and the ISM-to-stellar mass relation with low-mass-loaded (ηM∼ 0.1–10) but high-energy-loaded (ηE∼ 0.1–1) winds, with self-regulation occurring primarily through heating and cooling of the CGM. We show that the model predictions are robust against changes to the mass loading of outflows but are quite sensitive to our choice of the energy loading, preferringηE∼ 1 for the lowest-mass halos and ∼0.1 for Milky Way–like halos.more » « less
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            Abstract The driving of turbulence in galaxies is deeply connected with the physics of feedback, star formation, outflows, accretion, and radial transport in disks. The velocity dispersion of gas in galaxies therefore offers a promising observational window into these processes. However, the relative importance of each of these mechanisms remains controversial. In this work we revisit the possibility that turbulence on galactic scales is driven by the direct impact of accreting gaseous material on the disk. We measure this effect in a disk-like star-forming galaxy in IllustrisTNG, using the high-resolution cosmological magnetohydrodynamical simulation TNG50. We employ Lagrangian tracer particles with a high time cadence of only a few million years to identify accretion and other events. The energies of particles are measured by stacking the events in bins of time around the event. The average effect of each event is measured by fitting explicit models for the kinetic and turbulent energies as a function of time. These measurements are corroborated by cross-correlating the turbulent energy with other time series and searching for signals of causality, i.e., asymmetries across zero time lag. We find that accretion contributes to the large-scale turbulent kinetic energy even if it does not dominate in this ∼5 × 109M⊙stellar mass galaxy. Extrapolating this finding to a range of galaxy masses, we find that there are regimes where energy from direct accretion may dominate the turbulent energy budget, particularly in disk outskirts, galaxies less massive than the Milky Way, and at redshift ∼2.more » « less
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            Abstract We describe a public data release of the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxy formation (available at http://flathub.flatironinstitute.org/fire ) from the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. FIRE-2 simulations achieve parsec-scale resolution to explicitly model the multiphase interstellar medium while implementing direct models for stellar evolution and feedback, including stellar winds, core-collapse and Type Ia supernovae, radiation pressure, photoionization, and photoelectric heating. We release complete snapshots from three suites of simulations. The first comprises 20 simulations that zoom in on 14 Milky Way (MW)–mass galaxies, five SMC/LMC-mass galaxies, and four lower-mass galaxies including one ultrafaint; we release 39 snapshots across z = 0–10. The second comprises four massive galaxies, with 19 snapshots across z = 1–10. Finally, a high-redshift suite comprises 22 simulations, with 11 snapshots across z = 5–10. Each simulation also includes dozens of resolved lower-mass (satellite) galaxies in its zoom-in region. Snapshots include all stored properties for all dark matter, gas, and star particles, including 11 elemental abundances for stars and gas, and formation times (ages) of star particles. We also release accompanying (sub)halo catalogs, which include galaxy properties and member star particles. For the simulations to z = 0, including all MW-mass galaxies, we release the formation coordinates and an “ex situ” flag for all star particles, pointers to track particles across snapshots, catalogs of stellar streams, and multipole basis expansions for the halo mass distributions. We describe publicly available python packages for reading and analyzing these simulations.more » « less
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            Abstract Physical and chemical properties of the interstellar medium (ISM) at subgalactic (∼kiloparsec) scales play an indispensable role in controlling the ability of gas to form stars. In this paper, we use the TNG50 cosmological simulation to explore the physical parameter space of eight resolved ISM properties in star-forming regions to constrain the areas of this hyperspace where most star-forming environments exist. We deconstruct our simulated galaxies spanning a wide range of mass ( M ⋆ = 10 7 –10 11 M ⊙ ) and redshift (0 ≤ z ≤ 3) into kiloparsec-sized regions and statistically analyze the gas/stellar surface densities, gas metallicity, vertical stellar velocity dispersion, epicyclic frequency, and dark-matter volumetric density representative of each region in the context of their star formation activity and environment (radial galactocentric location). By examining the star formation rate (SFR) weighted distributions of these properties, we show that stars primarily form in two distinct environmental regimes, which are brought about by an underlying bicomponent radial SFR profile in galaxies. We examine how the relative prominence of these regimes depends on galaxy mass and cosmic time. We also compare our findings with those from integral field spectroscopy observations and find similarities as well as departures. Further, using dimensionality reduction, we characterize the aforementioned hyperspace to reveal a high degree of multicollinearity in relationships among ISM properties that drive the distribution of star formation at kiloparsec scales. Based on this, we show that a reduced 3D representation underpinned by a multivariate radius relationship is sufficient to capture most of the variance in the original 8D space.more » « less
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            Abstract Type Iax supernovae (SNe Iax) are the largest known class of peculiar white dwarf SNe, distinct from normal Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). The unique properties of SNe Iax, especially their strong photospheric lines out to extremely late times, allow us to model their optical spectra and derive the physical parameters of the long-lasting photosphere. We present an extensive spectral timeseries, including 21 new spectra, of SN Iax 2014dt from +11 to +562 days after maximum light. We are able to reproduce the entire timeseries with a self-consistent, nearly unaltered deflagration explosion model from Fink et al. usingTARDIS, an open source radiative-transfer code. We find that the photospheric velocity of SN 2014dt slows its evolution between +64 and +148 days, which closely overlaps the phase when we see SN 2014dt diverge from the normal spectral evolution of SNe Ia (+90 to +150 days). The photospheric velocity at these epochs, ∼400–1000 km s−1, may demarcate a boundary within the ejecta below which the physics of SNe Iax and normal SNe Ia differ. Our results suggest that SN 2014dt is consistent with a weak deflagration explosion model that leaves behind a bound remnant and drives an optically thick, quasi-steady-state wind creating the photospheric lines at late times. The data also suggest that this wind may weaken at epochs past +450 days, perhaps indicating a radioactive power source that has decayed away.more » « less
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